RDI unchanged at 62.3% (10th day). MC: mean 62.11%, CI [58.7, 65.4]. P(>=65%)=7.8%.
Picture: Trump and Xi agreed: "Hormuz must remain open" and "Iran can never have nuclear weapons." Xi opposed "militarization" and "tolls." Bessent: "China will work behind the scenes." Meanwhile: ship seized near Fujairah, Indian vessel sunk near Oman, Chinese and Japanese tankers transited with Iran approval, Cooper told Senate "Epic Fury achieved all objectives." IRNA: "Trump came to China in shadow of failure."
1. Trump-Xi (Temple of Heaven + Great Hall, May 14): "Hormuz must remain open." Xi opposed "militarization" and "tolls." Interested in buying more US oil. Both: "Iran can never have nuclear weapons." Xi pledged no military equipment to Iran. Trump invited Xi to WH (Sep 24). No timeline, no mechanism, no guarantees. (Tier 1, WH, CNN, CNBC, AJ, CBS)
2. Bessent: "Very much in China interest. China will work behind scenes." Trump to Hannity: "Xi said if I can help, I'd like to help." Xi joked: "They stopped it, then you stopped them." Xi warned on Taiwan: "most important issue." (Tier 1)
3. Chinese supertanker (2M barrels Iraqi oil) and Japanese tanker (1.9M barrels Kuwait/UAE oil) transited. Japan PM called Pezeshkian directly. "No toll paid." IRGC claims 30 transits; Kpler confirms ~10 (vs 140 normal). (Tier 1)
4. Fujairah: ship seized by "unauthorized persons," headed to Iran (UKMTO). Fujairah is UAE's only major port outside Hormuz. If pressure extends there: crisis moves from "strait control" to "threatening alternatives." (Tier 1/2)
5. Indian livestock ship sunk near Oman. 14 crew rescued. Possible missile/drone hit. Attacker unconfirmed. Maritime environment "contaminated with risk." (Tier 1/3)
Strategic reading: Beijing summit was verbal, not operational. Xi said "I'd like to help" but gave no guarantees. China got: (a) continued tanker transit (practical, not verbal) and (b) Taiwan warning leverage. Trump got: "China agrees with us" for domestic consumption. Iran? IRNA: "Trump came in shadow of failure." But Xi publicly opposed "Hormuz militarization." China is no longer Iran's unconditional ally. Question: will Iran read this signal or ignore it?
Verbal agreement. No timeline/mechanism. Xi opposed militarization/tolls. Pledged no arms to Iran. Bessent: 'China behind scenes.' Trump invited Xi to WH Sep 24.
Japan PM called Pezeshkian. 'No toll paid.' IRGC: 30 transits. Kpler: ~10. Normal: 140/day.
UAE's only major port outside Hormuz. If pressure extends: crisis moves beyond strait.
14 crew rescued. Possible missile/drone. Attacker unconfirmed. Maritime environment 'contaminated.'
'Significantly degraded Iran military capabilities.' Blockade continues. Neutral transit facilitated.
UK, France, others. 'Only in permissive environment after sustainable ceasefire.' NATO not formally in.
Diplomatic (structural): Xi publicly opposed Hormuz militarization/tolls. China no longer unconditional ally. But no enforcement mechanism. Multinational maritime statement signed (conditional).
Economic: Oil dropped to ~$104 (from $126) on transit news. But analysts: "surface calm." Reserves down 246M bbl since war. IEA: "largest ever" (yesterday).
Military: Fujairah seizure shows pressure extending beyond strait. Indian ship sinking: risk-contaminated environment. Cooper: "all objectives achieved."
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| RDI | 62.3% |
| MC | 62.11% |
| CI | [58.7, 65.4] |
| P(>=65%) | 7.8% |
| Distance | 2.7 |
No changes (10th day).
Command ✅ Military >60% ✅ Economic ✅ | Elite ✅ Intl ✅ Proxy ✅ Revolt ❌ | Coup ❌ Flight ❌ Ground ❌ (infra ready)
Change: Xi opposition to Hormuz militarization adds China to international pressure. If China reduces oil purchases: war_economy may change.
Shift: Deal scenario dominant again (40-45%) on China entry. But Fujairah + Indian ship show escalation still plausible.
Day 76: the summit day. Photos at Temple of Heaven. Dinner at Great Hall. On paper: "Hormuz open, Iran no nukes." In practice: no timeline, no mechanism. Xi: "I'd like to help" and joked "they stopped it, then you stopped them." Simplest summary of 76 days of war.
At sea: Chinese and Japanese tankers transited with Iran permission. Ship seized near Fujairah. Indian vessel sunk. Iran simultaneously wants "Chinese mediation" and "Hormuz control." IRNA: "Trump came in failure." But Xi publicly opposed Hormuz militarization. China is no longer unconditional.
Key question: Will "behind the scenes" become an actual mechanism? If yes: incomplete deal path opens. If no: just photos. Hormuz remains Iran's "political control valve." IEA said yesterday: if not open by June, crisis to 2027.
Trump-Xi: verbal, no mechanism. Fujairah: UKMTO confirmed event, attribution incomplete. Indian ship: attacker unconfirmed. IRGC 30 transits vs Kpler 10. Cooper testimony: intel + messaging. "Behind scenes": unverifiable. All party claims x0.75.